Geospatial Analysis of India’s Cooking Gas Crisis: A Crisis Triggered by the US–Israel–Iran War (2026)- With Special Reference to Tamil Nadu

Abstract : The US–Israel–Iran War, which commenced on February 28, 2026, has precipitated one of the most severe energy crises India has faced in the post-liberalisation era. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March 1, 2026, has directly imperilled India's Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply chain, given that approximately 90 per cent of the country's LPG imports transit through this strategic chokepoint. India, the world's second-largest LPG importer, consumed 31.3 million metric tons of LPG in the financial year 2025 and can meet only 41 per cent of this demand from domestic sources. The present study undertakes a comprehensive geospatial analysis of the evolving LPG crisis across India, with a particular focus on Tamil Nadu, where over 10,000 commercial food establishments have either shuttered or drastically curtailed operations. Drawing upon real-time crisis data, state-level LPG consumption statistics, infrastructure mapping, and a multi-variable spatial vulnerability framework, the study identifies high-risk zones across Indian states and Tamil Nadu's districts. A predictive modelling approach, employing a Composite LPG Vulnerability Index (CLVI), projects short-term and medium-term risk scenarios under three geopolitical continuity assumptions. The findings reveal that Tamil Nadu, with 237.6 lakh active LPG connections and a 97 per cent household penetration rate yet minimal piped natural gas infrastructure, represents one of the most acutely vulnerable states in India. The study concludes with evidence-based policy recommendations for energy diversification, emergency supply protocols, and spatial targeting of relief interventions.